Three contiguous counties in southwestern Ohio, all traditionally Republican counties, gave unexpectedly large margins to George W. Bush over John F. Kerry on election night. All three counties experienced a huge increase in voter turnout. In all three counties, Bush received a higher percentage of the vote than he did in the 2000 election, and Kerry received a lower percentage of the vote than Al Gore did in 2000. This study analyzes how it happened.
In Warren County, the administrative building was
locked down on election night, all in the name of
"homeland security." No independent persons were
allowed to observe the vote count. Compared to 2000, the population increased by 14.75%, the number of registered voters increased by 29.66%, voter turnout increased by 33.55%, Bush’s point spread increased from 42.24% to 44.58%, and Bush’s victory margin
increased from 29,176 votes to 41,124 votes.
In Clermont County, compared to 2000, the population increased by 4.39%, the number of registered voters increased by 10.20%, voter turnout increased by 24.86%, Bush's point spread increased from 37.50%