Below we suggest three options for getting out of the Russia-Ukraine stalemate and in the process review briefly the relevant history. It’s time to up the ante. We write this exploration in the form of a hypothetical letter President Donald Trump might send to President Vladimir Putin.

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Dear Vladimir,
            Russia continues to resist entering into peace talks with Ukraine or even to consider a ceasefire and, instead, insists on continuing hostilities, aimed primarily at civilians. This was yet again evident from your absence at direct talks with President Zelensky (and me) in Istambul, Turkey, last Thursday (5/15/25), even though you yourself called for these face-to-face negotiations. This was also evident from your massive drone attack ahead of our today's (5/19/25) telephone call on ending the war.

            Let’s step back and see where we stand. In 1994, four nuclear powers signed the agreement known as the Budapest Memorandum: Russia, Ukraine, the United States, and the United Kingdom, with France and China giving separate assurances. In brief, Ukraine gave up its nuclear stockpile, the third largest in the world, in return for guarantees of territorial integrity (Belarus and Kazakhstan got a similar deal). The agreement prohibited the signatories, including Russia, from using military force or economic coercion against Ukraine, except in self-defense.

            The world benefited from the Budapest Memorandum by limiting the number of nuclear powers and by broadening membership in the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). But clearly Russia benefited the most by no longer having three formidable nuclear powers on its borders. Yet with your annexation of Ukraine's Crimea in 2014 and your launching in early 2022 a full-scale invasion and effective annexation of Eastern Ukraine (Donetsk and Luhansk regions), Russia, under your leadership, benefited further from violating the Budapest Memorandum.

            Russia inflicted significant losses not just on Ukraine. Your walking away from the 1994 agreement also inflicted damage to the United States and United Kingdom by forcing us, in the spirit of the Budapest Memorandum, to spend treasure helping Ukraine defend itself (the US expenditures are approaching 350 billion dollars and counting).

            There is enough blame to go around: in the past, some in America dangled the prospect of Ukraine joining NATO even though we promised Russia not to push the eastern expansion of NATO after the Soviet Union dissolved itself in 1991. This notwithstanding, no formal talks about Ukraine joining NATO had even begun.  The issue should not have been used as an excuse to violate the agreement and wage a bloody war.

With the staggering losses of life and the destruction of property on both sides,  we would like to see the end of this war ASAP and a lasting peace. The process should start with a ceasefire and be followed by good-faith negotiations. The return of all prisoners of war, the return of all (thousands) kidnapped children, and the war reparations are a must.  But let’s focus on the big picture. Here are three options.

Option # 1 (has been on the table for a while):

• Immediate ceasefire followed by good-faith negotiations.
• Russia keeps occupied Crimea and the occupied Donetsk and Luhansk regions,
• Ukraine will not join NATO and will stay neutral.
• European peace-keepers will be installed at the Ukrainian-Russia border on the Ukrainian side.
• Elimination of sanctions against Russia, following a ceasefire and conclusion of good-faith negotiations about the above mentioned topics: return of all prisoners and all kidnapped children plus reparations.
• Another Russian invasion of Ukraine, in violation of the Budapest Memorandum, will trigger Ukraine’s accession to NATO—a guarantee with some teeth that should prevent Russian aggression.

This is the best deal we have to offer, with the following benefits strongly favoring Russia:

• The killings of soldiers and civilians on both sides stop: both sides enjoy peace.
• Russia will have a nonnuclear, non-NATO neighbor in Ukraine, as you insisted; and you’ll keep currently occupied territories (about 20 percent of the Ukrainian state), despite the Budapest Memorandum; you will see all sanctions against Russia lifted.
• Ukraine will get back its kidnapped children, European peacekeepers, and reparations for rebuilding of its war devastation.
• The world will get non-proliferation of nukes and peace.
• The United States will be able to limit its substantial funding of Ukraine’s defense.

Again, this the best deal for Russia.  We will all get nonproliferation and peace. The details will have to be worked out in good-faith negotiations. If the negotiations are stalled by Russia, we offer two more options (details to be worked out).

Option # 2:

• Russia keeps occupied Crimea and the occupied Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
• We start a speedy accession of Ukraine in its current shape to NATO, as our fulfillment of obligations under the Budapest Memorandum;
• European or NATO  peace keepers will arrive at the Ukrainian-Russia border on the Ukrainian side.
• Elimination of sanctions against Russia, following a ceasefire and conclusion of good-faith negotiations about the above-mentioned return of all prisoners and all kidnapped children, plus reparations.
• Another Russian invasion of Ukraine, in violation of the Budapest Memorandum, triggers NATO’s response.

This is also a good deal, with the following benefits still favoring Russia:

• The killings of soldiers and civilians on both sides stops: everyone enjoys peace.
• Russia will have the assurance of a nonnuclear neighbor in Ukraine; and you’ll keep occupied territories (about 20% of Ukraine territory) in violation of the Budapest Memorandum.
• Ukraine will get back its kidnapped children, European or NATO peacekeepers, and reparations for rebuilding after the devastation of war.
• The world will get non-proliferation of nukes and peace.
• The United States will be able to limit its substantial support of Ukraine’s defense.

The details will have to be worked out in direct negotiations.

Option # 3:

• We will support Ukraine in its position that, by not upholding the Budapest Memorandum when it comes to the territorial integrity of Ukraine in return for Ukraine’s nuclear weapons – and then by violating these guarantees through the war of aggression – Russia effectively canceled Ukraine’s commitment to nonnuclear status.
• A fair solution is thus returning nuclear capabilities to Ukraine. Russia should do it, but if not, the United States, as a signatory of the Budapest Memorandum, will do it (initially, perhaps, with tactical nuclear weapons).
• The status of occupied Crimea and occupied Donetsk and Luhansk regions is then to be settled through the negotiations of two nuclear powers: Ukraine and Russia. So should be the return of all prisoners and all kidnapped children plus reparations.
• We will welcome a nuclear Ukraine to NATO.

            I do not favor Option # 3, as it is contrary to our goals of limiting the proliferation of nuclear weapons. However, if this is the only way forward, we will seriously consider it.

            My recommendation is Option # 1, the most favorable to Russia and likely the fastest way to stop the killings and conclude this war. I am looking forward to your reply.

Sincerely,
Donald J. Trump
President of the United States

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As the peace-seeking negotiations are hopelessly stalled, it is time to up the ante for Putin, and that’s what our Options # 2 and # 3 do.

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Born and raised behind the Iron Curtain, Dr. Zbigniew J. Kabala is a naturalized United States citizen who cherishes the freedoms and opportunities granted by this country. He holds a faculty appointment in the Civil & Environmental Engineering Department at Duke University in Durham, NC. Email: kabala@duke.edu