The midterm election is today, and the Ohio Democratic party faces a catastrophic defeat. J.D Vance gained five percentage points in Emerson College’s final survey of Ohio’s Senate race. Nan Whaley’s polling figures have remained stagnant since announcing her candidacy.

Hyper-partisan gerrymandering will assure Republican control of the statehouse. Election of conservative Supreme Court justices will legitimize those unconstitutional maps. And congressional races are largely Republican leaning, with the three possible Democratic victories occurring under extraordinary circumstances. Specifically a redrawn district, an astoundingly incompetent opponent, and location in a blue city. No matter how many column inches Politico dedicates to praising Ryan’s strategy, the likelihood of Ryan’s success is slim.  Likewise for Nan Whaley, whose praises the Ohio press corp constantly sing. Multiple factors can be used to trace the Democrat’s failure. 

It would be difficult for any party to win in a state so gerrymandered. They haven’t had the chance to demonstrate their governing ability in almost twelve years, with the COVID response- and its economic consequences- both administered by Republicans. These excuses, and several others, will be regurgitated by Democratic operatives as justifications after November 8th. What such diagnoses are missing, however, is the Ohio Democratic Party’s lurch rightward, and how its conservative posturing failed to win over white working class voters. 

No one typifies this strategy more than Congressman Tim Ryan. After winning the Senate primary, Ryan attempted to portray himself as a rugged populist, compared to former venture capitalist and Silicon Valley scion J.D Vance. Ryan’s team recognized the power of Trumpian politics on Ohio’s electorate, and tried to replicate it from a liberal perspective. Yet in doing so, Ryan abandoned liberal values in favor of xenophobia and centrism. More akin to Joe Manchin- the fossil fuel tied Senator who sank climate policies and stalled infrastructure deals- than the ideals of average voters. Despite embracing the “populist,” title, Ryan admonished multiple Biden proposals, which had large support from the American public. When Biden issued an executive order erasing student debt, Ryan criticized him, saying “waiving debt for those already on a trajectory to financial security sends the wrong message to the millions of Ohioans without a degree.” Apparently forgetting the $1,812,000 Ohioans with outstanding student loan debt, causing Ohio to rank 26 in the country for debtors. More appallingly,

Ryan weaponized xenophobia to appear tough on China, airing an ad wherein he repeated the word ‘China,” and causing widespread condemnation from Asian-American groups. Such behavior earned Ryan an avalanche of funding from donors with right-wing leanings, and whose ideology contradicts the messaging of his campaign. Ryan received $17,900 from Fredrick Wilson on September 20th. Like Vance, Wilson is a venture capitalist, and has expressed a contemptuous attitude toward unions in posts from his blog, AVC. Describing his experience during the occupy Wall Street protests, Wilson writes that he “saw a ton of union placards in the marches uptown and that bothered me.” Wilson defends AirBnB against regulations placed on them by New York State, saying the company is a victim of “the hotel industry and its labor unions.” Other Ryan donors are more overtly conservative. Larry Goldberg gave $10,000 to Ryan’s PAC on September 26th,2022. Before Ryan Republican Congressman Dave Joyce was among Goldberg’s most recent donations. All of this did little to sway the Rust Belt demographic Ryan pandered to. 56% of Ohio voters expect Vance will win, according to Emerson College. 

Whaley also jumped on the anti-student debt relief bandwagon, referring to Biden’s decision as “not fair to the thousands of Ohioans who made the decision to not attend college.” She even advocated for Issues 1 and 2, which would hinder non-citizens from voting locally in elections and remove the power of bail setting from the Ohio Supreme Court. “ yeah, U.S. citizens should be the people that should vote in elections,” said Whaley, even though only one location- Yellow Springs, Ohio- actually authorizes the practice. Mirroring her Republican colleagues has not benefited Whaley at all, leading instead to irrelevance as Mike Dewine’s lead is maintained, and grows. 

Since Joe Biden won the 2020 presidential election with the help of white suburbanites, Democrats have made appealing to this constituency an essential part of their electoral project. Yet Virginia’s governor’s race proved how fickle this relationship was, as Glenn Youngkin swept into office with 45% of college educated voters in the state, compared to Trump’s 38% in 2020.  White suburban women- once thought of as the key to Democrat’s prospects in a post-Roe society- remain allies to the GOP. Since John Kasich spoke at the Democratic National Convention and Liz Cheney began endorsing Democratic candidates, 1 million voters across 43 states switched their party affiliation to Republican. Ohio Democrats- and the Democratic party nationally- may delude themselves into thinking that co-opting conservative talking points will ensure success. 

But nothing can change  this simple reality: When given the choice between a posturing Democrat or a Republican, conservative voters will usually support the Republican. Which leaves the Democrats with two options: either stop mimicking Republican rhetoric and start supporting policies that help the American working class, or fully embrace Cheneyfication of the liberal class. If Tim Ryan and Nan Whaley are any indication, it appears the latter is more likely.