The U.S. grid is currently flooded with data center proposals that will never get built according to a recent whitepaper from Schneider Electric. The paper argues that only 10-20 percent of all proposed data centers will ever get beyond permitting. If true, the report argues, this may lessen the projected impact from load demand growth, but it makes it more difficult for utilities and grid operators to plan for the future.

Last year, RAND Corporation's "upper confidence" forecast projected 347 GW of AI-sector power consumption by 2030. But Schneider Electric called that prediction "extreme" and cited more modest forecasts of under 100 GW.

Such claims echo a 2018 Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory study that compared load forecasts and actual growth for 12 Western U.S. utilities in the mid-2000s and found most overestimated future demand.

Data center developers are adept at playing utilities off one another to manufacture price elasticity, noted a former commissioner at the Texas Public Utility Commission.

"The phantom load problem arises because the cost of getting in a queue is lower than the weighted likelihood that they'll want to use their position," he said. "When it's cheaper to buy a queue position than not to use your queue position, you'll buy queue positions all day long," he added.

Many utilities are trying to raise the cost of load demand applications. This year, Dominion Energy, Appalachian Power and Rappahannock Electric Cooperative proposed new large-load rate classes that would apply to data centers. They would require data centers to pay at least 60 percent to 80 percent of contracted demand, even if the data center is never built.

PJM capacity prices jump 22 percent

Capacity prices in the PJM Interconnection's latest auction hit a $329.17/MW-day price cap across its region, up 22 percent from a year ago. PJM expects the increase to lead to 1.5 percent to 5 percent bill increases for most ratepayers. PJM is the regional transmission authority that manages the grid in states located between New York and Chicago.

The situation might have been even worse. Analysts estimate that without a price cap that was established in an agreement with Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, the capacity price for the 2026-27 delivery year would have been nearly $389/MW-day, or about 18 percent higher, which would have increased prices 40 percent.

In 2024, PJM's capacity auction sent shockwaves through its 13-state region when prices for the delivery soared nearly 10 fold, up from $28.92/MW-day to $269.92/MW-day.

A capacity price is the cost utilities must pay generators for the promise that power will be available in the future. Not for the power itself. The auction's high capacity prices are signs that the market believes that future demand will be far greater than future supply.

Residential electricity retail prices rose more rapidly than commercial and industrial prices from 2019 to 2024, according to a study released last week by the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory.

Nationwide, average residential prices jumped 27 percent during that 5-year period, while average commercial and industrial prices increased 19 percent.

Electric bills have increased a further 13 percent in 2025 according to a separate recent report.

The researchers also found that electricity prices charged by investor-owned utilities are higher and have risen faster than those charged by public power utilities. Overall, IOU inflation-adjusted spending on distribution and transmission increased while generation costs declined.

The report placed much of the blame for increased prices on customers who are opting to install their own solar generation.

"States with the largest price increases in recent years typically featured shrinking customer loads — partially linked to growth in net metered behind-the-meter solar — and had [renewable portfolio standard] programs in concert with relatively costly renewable energy supplies," the researchers argued.

A report released by Bank of America last week disagreed with those conclusions, stating that the growing demand for electricity generation capacity and grid investments, partly due to data centers, as well as higher natural gas prices appear to be the primary reason for rising electricity bills.

Poll shows most Ohioans have positive view of solar farms

The Ohio Northern University Institute for Civics and Public Policy (ICAPP) recently completed its annual poll, with a special focus on public opinion about zoning issues, including the development of solar farms. Conducted in October, the poll surveyed 1,638 Ohio adults.

In general, the poll found that solar farms are quite popular among Ohioans, with a clear majority expressing support for solar development. Overall, 55 percent of respondents are in favor of solar farms, with only 19 percent who oppose them. Of the 55 percent who support solar farms, 25 percent strongly support and 30 percent somewhat support them. Of the respondents who indicated opposition, only 8 percent strongly oppose with 11 percent stating they somewhat oppose solar farms. Overall support is somewhat lower in rural areas (+18 percent positive over negative), than in either suburban areas (+47), or urban areas (+53).

Ohioans responded favorably when asked about the economic impact of solar farms, showing a net positivity rating of +37. The net positivity rating for the environmental impact of solar farms was +36. This suggests that Ohioans expect positive environmental impacts to come from solar farm development.

Across every measured category (economic, environmental, and quality of life), Ohioans view solar farms positively. The data show strong support for solar farms (overall net positivity rating of +36, with a consistent trend of opposition only by those rating themselves as "strongly conservative."