Renewable Energy thumps fossil fuels over past 12 months

Despite significant policy headwinds imposed by the Trump administration, new electrical generating capacity from renewable energy continues to significantly outpace that produced from fossil fuel sources.

In the past 12 months, power generation from wind, solar and batteries increased by over 55,000 MW. Generation from fossil fuels actually declined by 1,400 MW during the same time period. Solar and batteries accounted for 82 percent of all new power added to the grid. Generation from natural gas actually grew by a modest 3,300 MW since last October, but this growth was offset by a decline in generation from coal and petroleum-based fuels.

Electricity from nuclear power essentially held constant during the past year, and no new nuclear power plants are currently under construction.

Data centers likely to cause electricity blackouts and disruptions

Energy regulators and executives are warning that the build-out of artificial intelligence data centers has significantly increased the risk of electricity disruptions and blackouts.

Panelists at a conference hosted by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) emphasized that the large-scale energy consumption of AI data centers presents challenges to both supply and demand of electricity.

The expansion of AI has led to a significant increase in the amount of electricity consumed by data centers. Analysts estimate that by 2035, data centers could account for up to 20 percent of global electricity use.

Unlike residential or commercial electricity usage that fluctuates, large data centers draw massive, centralized, and constant power around the clock. This creates a significant, persistent strain on the grid, increasing the risk of blackouts during peak demand periods or extreme weather.

The Department of Energy (DOE) issued a report in July that raised concerns about grid reliability driven by increased risks from factors like rising demand for AI data centers, power plant retirements, and extreme weather. The DOE projects a 100-fold increase in outage risk by 2030 without significant action by grid operators. If true, this will mean an average of 2.5 hours of power outages each day for the average customer connected to the grid.

Another $1.6 billion in clean energy projects canceled

While load demand is projected to explode over the next few years, the Trump administration continues its efforts to scale back the development of renewable energy sources. Due to the elimination of incentives and uncertain future policies, companies canceled or scaled back nearly $1.6 billion in clean energy projects last month, bringing the total amount of withdrawn investment to more than $24 billion so far this year, according to a recent report by clean energy advocacy group E2. 

E2 reported that after the Inflation Reduction Act expanded federal clean energy tax credits in 2022, companies announced "415 major projects across 42 states and Puerto Rico, representing $135B in investment and 125,000 planned jobs."

But since the beginning of this year, 42 clean energy projects have been canceled or scaled back,indicating that "the overall trajectory of clean energy growth has sharply slowed in 2025," the report noted.

States step in to fill federal incentive void

The North Carolina Clean Energy Technology Center (NCCETC) released its Q3 2025 edition of "The 50 States of Solar." The report identifies three trends in state solar policy: (1) utilities continuing to transition to net-billing tariffs, (2) states and utilities expanded community solar, and (3) states responding to the loss of federal incentives.

States, primarily through their public utility commissions, continued to chip away at net metering compensation - lowering the amount paid to those with solar arrays who feed excess power back onto the grid. States also continued the expansion of community solar programs, where electric customers can essentially "buy in" to a larger solar installation and allocate production to their home or business, rather than place panels on individual rooftops.

While these two trends have been highlighted in past reports, a new trend emerged as states began expanding financial incentives to compensate for reduced incentives at the federal level.

For example, Illinois regulators are moving fast to lock in federal clean energy dollars before they disappear. The Illinois Commerce Commission (ICC) approved a major expansion to the state's 2024–2026 Long-Term Renewable Resources Procurement Plan (LTRRPP) last week — doubling capacity for small-scale, community, and commercial solar projects and authorizing new competitive procurements for utility-scale development ahead of the Investment Tax Credit (ITC) phase-out.

Illinois currently ranks among the top five states nationwide for community solar deployment, with more than 700 MW installed and hundreds more in development

Amazon announces nuclear deals

In the "I'll believe it when I see it" department, Amazon announced a series of deals touting its plans to install small modular nuclear reactors near its data center in Washington state. Dubbed the Cascade Advanced Energy Facility, the company announced it would deploy 12 small modular reactors capable of generating 960 MW on a footprint equivalent to a few city blocks.

Data center and nuclear advocates have been touting small modular nuclear reactors or SMRs as the answer to anticipated electrical demand surges due to power hungry AI applications.

Others argue that the demand surge will take place within the next 5-10 years. SMR technology is still in the early stages of development and has not been commercially deployed. The Amazon announcement targets construction to begin in 5-7 years and will not be producing power until 2039.