Given the various "errors" and so forth in the polls, try on the following:
Professor Sam Wang's map with 311 Kerry votes to Bush 227, assumed Kerry with a Popular vote lead over Bush.
It also shows FLorida, Nevada, New Mexico, Iowa and Ohio going to Bush.
Arkansas is not shown going to Bush, but is the "pinkest" state.
Well, we know the exit polls were wrong in some details.
How about this:
Bush led Kerry in the Popular vote.
But Kerry carried all the above states, plus Arkansas.
Bush's lead is about a million votes, give or take 900,000 up from that, or 240,000 down from that million.
Kerry carries all of his current states, plus:
Ohio
Iowa
New Mexico
Nevada
Florida
Arkansas.
That would put Kerry at 252 + 20 (OH) + IA (7) + NM (5) + NV (5) + FL (27) + AR (6) Electoral Votes = 322 Electoral Votes for Kerry, with Bush at a circa one million vote Popular lead.