On May 17, I wrote a column titled “How Whaley Beats DeWine.” It contained my advice to Nan Whaley, the Democratic nominee for governor, on how to pull the upset of incumbent, entrenched Republican Gov. Mike DeWine. ColumbusMediaInsiderPoliticalOutsider: How Whaley Beats DeWine | ColumbusFreePress.com
At the time, 75 days ago, I gave Whaley 1 chance in 10 of pulling the upset. After the Roe decision threatening women’s right to choose brought many motivated women into the political marketplace, I revised my forecast to 3 chances in 10. I think the decision boosted Whaley’s standing by 3 percent, but it still leaves her 12 points behind (she was 15 points behind in the only post-primary poll) with 100 days to go. I give Whaley only 2 chances out of 10 of winning at this writing.
I am going to review each category I cited in my original analysis (first take) and tell you where I think Whaley stands (second take).
UNDERSTAND THE VOTERS
First take: Election after election show that Ohio voters are evolutionary not revolutionary.